New ethanol study examines global trends, opportunities and challenges
in this emerging market.
St. Louis, Missouri [Renewable EnergyAccess.com]
In China, India, Brazil and Europe, economic and environmental security
concerns are giving birth to new government targets and incentives,
aimed at reducing petroleum imports and increasing the consumption and
production of renewable fuels. Over the next ten years, however,
investors in traditional ethanol facilities will face the inevitable
prospects of increased ethanol imports, non-food crops for feedstocks,
and the imminent maturation of cellulosic ethanol as a competitive
ethanol fuel.
"If the promises of competitive, large-scale cellulosic ethanol
production are realized, and if nationalist import/export policies for
biofuels are further liberalized, then the possibilities for ethanol to
replace 20% of gasoline consumption in the U.S., China and India may be
realized by the year 2020."
-- William Thurmond, author of Ethanol 2020: A Global Market Survey
"The global market for ethanol faces enormous opportunities and
transitional challenges over the next ten years. A few issues hold the
key to understanding the transitional nature of these challenges and
identifying the best prospects for long-term growth opportunities," said
William Thurmond, author of Ethanol 2020: A Global Market Survey.
http://www.emerging-markets.com/ethanol2020/Ethanol2020_GlobalSurvey_Contents.pdf
Thurmond's study, which is being released today at the 23rd
International Fuel Ethanol Workshop & Expo in St. Louis, Missouri, by
Emerging Markets Online, provides an analysis and review of major
ethanol markets, leading producers, feed stock price trends,
import-export trends, government targets as well as challenges and
opportunities worldwide.
The report reviews biofuels initiatives world-wide, including Bush's new
"20% biofuels by 2017" re-vision of the U.S. Renewable Fuels Standard;
the European Union's proposed "20 by 20" program to replace 20% of
transportation fuels with renewable fuels; and national biofuels target
goals and programs for Brazil, China, India, the U.S. and Europe.
"If the promises of competitive, large-scale cellulosic ethanol
production are realized, and if nationalist import/export policies for
biofuels are further liberalized, then the possibilities for ethanol to
replace 20% of gasoline consumption in the U.S., China and India may be
realized by the year 2020," noted Thurmond.
The First, Second & Third Generation
Ethanol 2020 identifies three transitional generations of biofuels
emerging in the next ten years. The first generation, or 1G, according
to Thurmond, is based on traditional domestic production, economics and
feedstocks—generally grown and sold near geographically agricultural areas.
The second generation, or 2G, is based on the increasing transition of
ethanol production facilities from traditional agricultural areas to new
areas in coastal regions in order to take advantage of import, export,
multi-feedstock and refinery co-location advantages.
In addition, this second phase addresses the food versus fuel debate,
supported by emerging trends in increased production and consumption of
non-corn and non-food fuel crops such as sorghum and switchgrass.
This is also true for biodiesel, where non-food feedstocks such as algae
and jatropha produce significantly higher returns per acre, and do not
compromise food supplies or stimulate higher food prices.
Ethanol 2020 observes the third generation, or 3G, is based on emerging
technologies and production processes such as cellulosic ethanol,
biobutanol, and dimethylfuran that promise higher fuel production and
investment returns per acre at lower costs.
The upside to 2G and 3G transitions, the study speculates, is they
provide answers and solutions to current problems with rising feedstock
costs, energy infrastructure integration issues, the food vs. fuel
debate, and eventual price relief for consumers at the pump. During
these transitions, new opportunities will emerge for ethanol investors,
and new technological processes will improve the present production
facilities of today and help alleviate concerns of ROI and stranded costs.
"As these transitions occur, we expect to see an increasing amount of
cognitive dissonance and political debate between established ethanol
producers, the emerging 2G/3G investors and stakeholders, policy
officials and analysts," said Thurmond.
"Moreover, these transitional trends and technologies are likely to be
critical to the success of government biofuels programs world-wide with
ambitious ethanol production targets. Although growing pains will occur,
the emergence of 2G and 3G ethanol will help overcome many of the
present limitations of agricultural, commercial and technological
ethanol production," he concluded.
--
Check for earlier Pacific Biofuel posts: http://pacbiofuel.blogspot.com/
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